Leaders of government needs crystal ball

Source of picture:
 https://richtopia.com/effective-leadership/throw-out-your-crystal-ball

Kimmo Huosionmaa

Everybody wants to see future. Leaders of government really need crystal ball to support their work, but there is some methods to forecast reactions of societies. There are two methods to forecast what will happen if we do something  mathematical and historical. They are not very trusty and some scientist think that some day we can build crystal ball what basis an electromagnetic black hole, what is created in NIF-type fusion test system. Last one is just reactor, where full geometrically made ball shape bite of metal or crystal will pumped with electrons or lasers, and then scientist could open wormhole to the future. That's possible in theory, but it needs other black hole in that target time, and those black holes oscillation must synchronize together. This way to see future through wormhole is theoretically possible, but making that machine is difficult because power what is needed is very huge.


When leaders of government makes their decisions you must realize that those people cant't see what really will happen in the future. They must just forecast what kind of influence is about those decisions what they make, but normally they can just imagine what could happen if they do something for laws or other things like international relationships. Of course there is tools what makes those forecasts easier, and one is mathematical method. There is formulas what are made for calculating massive gas masses movements, and those mathematical formulas are normally used by meteorologists when they want to forecast weather. Those formulas are useful to calculate people reactions for some decisions.


The idea of use of this kind of mathematical functions to forecast people reaction are basis on Science fiction book "The Foundation" what is written by novelist Isaac Asimov. In his book methodology was called "Psychohistory" The principle of use those meteorological or normal temperature pressure (NTP) formulas for sociological forecast is same as calculating  movements of massive gas masses. We can't calculate place of single atom, but we can forecast movements of giant gas mass, and calculating this kind of movement is easier for bigger masses of material than tiny mass.

Could NIF-reactor be tomorrows crystal ball?

That's because giant gas mass will not change direction of moving so easily than tiny mass of material elements. You see this in snow. Single snowflakes will move without sense but when we see snow falls we will know where it is going better when mass of moving snow is big, when even trees cant resist it power. And humans are like snow. We can stop one person of society, but problem is how we will find him. If all members of society will begin to move, we can forecast their actions, but they are harder to stop.


What is threat of society? Single group of people can't make our society unstable, but if many radical organisations are activating in same time, could result be devastating. That's why we have historical method to find out what our decisions can cause for society. It basis investigation of historical and political elements of crisis. In this method scientists will investigate history, and find similarities between historical decisions and decisions what leaders are making now. After that they investigate what influence that decision had to society.



After that they might want to inform leaders about dangers of some decisions. Methodology is not very sharp and it is not very trusty. But these unreliable methods are better than nothing. Of course scientist think that they can make tiny wormholes to see the future, and those wormholes are made with lasers or electric accelerators, what pump lots of energy to small target. Those systems might look like NIF, but I don't know is that technology tested in real life. And if they are right they could make small wormhole, what is smaller than atomic nucleus, and those wormholes could bring light from future like some light cable. And if everything goes right those scientist could theoretically make camera obscura what sees to future. But this is only theory.