How does the probability calculus work with the insurance companies?

Kimmo Huosionmaa

Probability calculations are the key element when insurance companies make prices for the insurances. The probability of some phenomenon orders price of the insurance. And this is the key element when the person will get the reparations for some accident. There is a group of the phenomenon, what is known as the "Black Swan" phenomenon. Those things are the probability that meteor strikes to my home, and it will destroy it. Also, the probability that airplane will strike to the building in the peacetime is very unusual. When we are seeking about conspiracies or other criminal activities in those cases, we must notice that there were the only couple of cases when the airplane will hit the buildings, and of course, the most well-known cases were when two passenger planes hit the World Trade Center and third was hit to the Pentagon in 2001.


The probability of this action calculating like the three would be annihilated by the number of the houses of the world. In this case, I would think that the number of hijacked airplanes would be three, and the calculation doesn't involve the plane, what hit to ground in Virginia. And this will cause the extremely small probability of this kind of disaster, what would be caused by the airplane hits the houses, if there would be sure, that this kind of action will do, but there are nothing more limits, like the country, where the strike is planned to do, and the size of the house. If the limit is 100 floors, the plane would attack any house, what has 100 floors or more.  The probability that meteorite strikes to some particular house will go like the area of the building would annihilate the area of the Earth, as I wrote earlier.

Those cases were very uncommon way to make the terrorist attack and in this cases, the insurance companies and national security officials are seeking for conspiracies, what might not lead by the government, but they might consist the thing, what is that somebody didn't make contact with the authorities when the plan of destroying those building by using the hijacked airplanes as the ammunition. In this scenario, somebody might have this plan to the knowledge, but this person did keep this plan in the own mind.


When this kind of persons, who might be informed the attempt of this kind of terror attack by the Osama Bin Laden himself. In this scenario, Bin-Laden called some of his supporters in America and told them about this 9/11. plan. The reason for that might be will to get the financial profit about that attack, and if the person could buy the apartments or another house with cheap price, and sell them with the high price, the profits could be extremely high. And if we will follow the way of thinking of Bin-Laden, this person might want the support for his notorious organization in this way.


First, someone would sell their apartments at the low price, and when some estate agent would sell that thing with the high price, and the part of the profits will go to Bin-Laden's terrorist organization. And of course, the supporters of that organization might want to sell their apartments before they will leave the country before the attack. That kind of persons would track through the archives, where the officials are looking for the persons, who sold their apartments or near the World Trade Center located offices just before the strike was done.

What means the analytical form of the "big data"?

Kimmo Huosionmaa

The price of the investment is ordering one thing, how long is this thing in use. And when we are talking about the price of the buildings, we must know actually how long the structure is in use. Then we must know how much service, electricity, and cleaning costs are per year. This will give the real price of the production. If some railroad is used only one hour during its lifetime, the costs would be very high.


And also the ratio of use, and the number of passengers and other transportation, what will come money for the accounts are making the economic balance and statistics about this thing. So if you want to calculate the profits and losses of the business, just minus the costs from the incoming money, and this is the way to make cost accounting. If the number is positive, the transportation would be economical and bring the profits.


 There is no rule about the shape of the big data or metadata, what means unprocessed data warehouse. When we are talking about the big data, it can compare of the massive sandpit. Sand is actually useless itself, but when we are starting to process that material, we will make it the useful material for many targets like houses and roads. The big data might be some TV-broadcast, the poster or the story in the newspaper. There might be things in that poster or story, what makes it very interested, and when we are going to make analyses about that article, we must ask one question.


Where that poster actually is, and if it will give negative picture or view of the service or company, what owns that room for advertisements? Nobody must be allowed to publish negative information about the service, what it offers in the area, what is under its own ownership. But when we are starting to check the information, what is in that poster, we must make the analyses about the text, and then we must understand, that there will be many things, what must be noticed in that poster.


I saw today the poster of one local newspaper, that the western subway line of the capital area of Finland has overcalculated the number of the users of this transportation. If those calculated numbers of the passengers were beaten, the line would be the disappointment. But then we should get more information about this news. What was the calculated number of the passengers? And what is the real quantity of passengers, who uses that railroad? And what is the range, where those calculations are made?


When we are seeing the other railways, we must notice, that every station of those railways has not the same number of the passengers. And when we are seeking the truth, we must see that almost every statistics can change to seem the disappointment. Only thing, what is needed is to show very big numbers of the passengers, and then the calculated ratio of use is of course under the limit of the calculations. This is the very good thing when the prices of those tunnels are shown to the ordinary people.


The price of the subway is very high, but we must remember that the limit of the calculations is not mentioned. Is this the price of the first year of use, or is there calculated the next years of use of this thing, and what costs have been set in those calculations? Those things are also the very important thing when we are talking about the price of some investment.