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All empires have their problems, and they all choose their road

Kimmo Huosionmaa

https://sites.google.com/view/allempireshavetheirproblems/etusivu

About the future of the Europe is a road, what every culture and empire have done. That is the road of the Roman empire and all other empires on the earth. All empires have risen because people needed protection against other people, but after that, the empires have fallen by internal disorders. That is the road for the European Union, if something will not be done soon. The reason why all empires have fallen is very clear. There have been the forces, who thought that all nations must be independent. But those people have another reason for drive independence in their areas, and that is not very altruistic. The reason for those independence movements is actually that those people can be great leaders in the small countries. And those populist movement leaders might only want good work in the parliament. And that kind of people caused the collapse of the empire. Every empire has met their fate in the situation, where people have bored about the government of their homelands. In the authoritarian state,  people lost their trust in authorities.


And that stated the rebel against the central government like in the Russian in 1917. The people were bored for the tsar, and after that, they started to fear the leader of the Russian empire, and that’s why they started the open rebellion against that man, who was the absolute dictator. The authoritarian and strong leadership of the state seem very good way to restore law and order to the state. But there is one little risk in that philosophy. Those leaders will sometimes become very brutal against their people. When we are talking about the restoring the law and the order, normally people think that means riots and violence.


Modern police forces have created the situation where violence is concrete but the violent person wants to save his life. And of course, the weapon what is used in that action is effective only in the short range. Nobody ever thought that somebody will open the fire in the middle of the street with the assault rifle and after that explodes himself. This kind of violence is the new element for police. But when we are talking about strong leadership we must understand that those strong leaders might be first very democratic. Those laws what allows the authoritarian way to use power are made to protecting the state. They were necessary for young states, what was not able to stabilize their governmental power and position for their governmental institutions.



 But if those laws will stay, they can give power to undemocratic advantage for that state. And we must realize that no leader lives forever. When the person in the head of the state changes the next owner of that position is not so democratic than his predictor. That is what we have seen in the history. The democracy based need for the strong leadership has changed for the nightmare like in many young states have done. The leaders who were very charismatic leaders for the people were changed as populistic and authoritative leaders, who crush the opposition without mercy.  That kind of advantage will cause fear against the government, and the result could be devastating for the empire. That happened in the Roman Empire and the last empire what faced that truth is the Soviet Union what collapsed because people feared to go home after protests.



That caused the snowball effect, where more and more people came to the streets, and then the Soviet government was unable to handle that situation. And the thing what grown that effect was fear, because the history of the Soviet and Russian government showed to the people, that they will go in very big trouble if they have taken part of the riots, what we're all demonstrations, what were focused against the central government of the Soviet Union. And they remember the promises what the Soviet authorities had made, and what they had broken.  And that is the problem with strong leaders. They afraid the people, and sometimes the fear is too strong, and people will start to rebel. This is the danger for an authoritative government.

Every case in the world is always two sides

Kimmo Huosionmaa

In the case of declaration of independence of the nation is always two parts, the independence movement, and another part, who doesn’t want the independence for some areas. Sometimes those people are not very often seen sight in media because their emotions are not so high than that independence movement. The problem with independence movements is that they appeal more feelings than a mind. That's why those political movements get so much room in the media. And what brings publicity brings votes. Some journalists like to make big stories about those movements because they are so colorful.


People are so sensitive and real, and they can speak spontaneously for their supporters. And what is the better picture in the media than a picture, where a supporter of independence cries when the flag of that new state rises up? The media is a very effective tool when people want to get publicity in their matter. And some journalists want to make big news for some movements, because they have no strong political opinions and antipathy against the government, that they will support everybody who is against the governments all around the world.


They want to believe, that everyone in the world hates governments and NATO. When we are talking about media's attitude about independence movements, we can see that those movements can get very much very positive publicity in the news where that movements power and popularity are very strongly highlighted. And that’s was the same style of the information what was given people in “Brexit case”. The media saw only positive things about Great Britain's separation from the EU.


And that’s why I think that kind of publicity might be supported by Russians because they might want to crash NATO. Publicity brings supporters to all parties, and when those leaders come to the front of people and sing some national hymns of some area, they might look like teddy bears. They want to stand in the front of people and show their patriotism to everybody. But they forget that in those street parliaments stands only the most eager part of the people, and that is a weakness of those politicians. Popular politics are very good to manipulate people, and they always can say right word in the right place.

And if police arrests somebody in the front of their flag, those politicians say "nobody has right to hit a people of that area", and that thing happens if those arrests are for crimes like breaking windows or something else. They always change those things to political persecution. All speeding ticket what they get is given by political reasons. And after that, they will get more people to listen to their song about the greater independent nation, what will live without evil central government.  Those street parliaments are sometimes threatened other people with violence if they will not support their idea of independence of some areas.

Problems culminating in Catalonia now

Kimmo Huosionmaa

The movement about the independence of Catalonia is going to their last change. The leader of that movement urges people for resistance against the central government of Madrid and will cause terrible condition if somebody misunderstands that urge. That kind of comments is dangerous,  because somebody might get the hand on his hand, and those actions will be like putting the fire under powder sack.


The problem of those people who are leaders of that movement is that there is a text in a law of Spain, that people who revolts might be judged to jail for 30 years. The reason why this text in the law book is very problematic in this situation is that the leaders of that movement might become example what will happen to those people, who revolts against the central government of Spain.


The declaration of independence might be very bad thing for the Spanish government because that country is very authoritarian, that kind of actions for separating some parts of that country will separate themselves as an independent state. Those actions are so open challenges to the central government.


Laws of the Spain are the basis on time when that nation was under control of General Franco, and that’s why Spain is a quite authoritarian country. Even if Spain did not take part of Second World War, the country was faced bloody civil war in 1930’s. The cause of that civil war was that Spain and general Franco didn’t take a part of the Second World War. And the fascistic government was in power of that country until early 1980’s. And that time is still seen in this time as attitudes of Spanish authorities.

About independence of states and situation in Spain

Picture Sky News

Kimmo Huosionmaa

Independence of the state is not so easy to take as a people think. When some state want's to be independent, it must make diplomatic relationships with other states. And that means that the new state must be confessed by other states. This a fact in international politics. If some state has not been confessed that state would not able to make relationships with other states, and if somebody has it passport that person can't travel with that.


That is a rule in international politics. The reason for this kind of actions is those other ways some other country might want to support financial or even giving them a military training to make some state dissipate. The last thing is very dangerous because armed independence movements will normally classifieds as a terrorist organization. But why some other states are supporting those movements?


Sometimes the reason for the support for some independence movements is not so altruistic than we might want to think. Reason for supporting that kind of movement is sometimes only attempting to take a control that areas natural resources. When we are talking about this Catalonian independence movement, we must realize that is very unrealistic objective, because normal people think that Spain is quite a democratic state.


That's why Catalonia might not able to believe to get support from the EU.  What makes that particular movement so popular, is that Catalonia has better social situation than other Spain, and that's why some Catalonians think that they should not pay so much taxes if Catalonia will become independent. Sometimes I think that behind this independence movement of Catalonia might be Putin and Kreml. Russians might think that this kind of actors like Catalonian independence movement can dissipate NATO, and that's why they might get support to that kind of groups.


But there is another aspect of independence movements if they are working openly, will their members easy to locate and track.  That's why some of those group might be honeypots for people, who want to take a violence in their life. Those movements are good places to show the will to make terror-actions against some target or offer drug money to that kind of politicians. So sometimes I think that some drug dealers might get financial support for those movements because that's the way they will want to buy diplomatic status or have mercy from their crimes.

About independence movements and why they are so popular?

Kimmo Huosionmaa

The area-parliament of Catalonia is talking about independence very seriously. And today we are making questions about those things, and the question is why those movements become so popular, that they are giving a declaration of independence. But we must realize that those movements are not a new phenomenon in the politics. There are always been movements, what are willing to cut the relationships to another country, but they did not become public until now. The internet has been given also for little groups change to get publicity.


When we are talking what might happen ten or fifteen years ago, those movements will not get their voices in the mind of the people. Those men and women who talked about independence that decade ago marked as political clowns. But when the government started to use violence against those people, they became in the front of the public eye. Violence just made people fear the police, and that drives them to give their support to those independence movements.


But what makes those movements so effective in the political field. They are led by young actors, who know how to utilize social media and the Internet. When we are talking about political violence, those parties or movement represented every action what police does, and where that movements symbols seen as a strike against their movement. It's very good symbol for them when policeman hits protesters in the front of that areas flag.


The politicians who want to give the declaration of independence for that area will say to people, "those cops are using the violence against that flag". It's same where riot started, or what was the reason for violence. The only thing that has an influence in people mind, is a picture where policeman strikes peaceful protester with a baton. It's very same to every people has that protester got a gun or knife couple of seconds before. They just see a picture where heavily equipped police stand in the front of that protester. And the only thing that has an influence is what people see.


Violence is a terrible weapon against political movements. If somebody dies in those fights between police and protesters, will those political movements get martyrs? And that might conduct the situation, where that independence movement starts to radicalize its politics. That is not the very nice road. Sometimes those movements will start to use violence against the government, and the evolution will get all-state into violence. The terror is thing what nobody wants, and violence is a strong reason to ban that movement from political field and make it membership illegal. If some movement takes fire bottles to their hands it gives the government the reason to begin massive police actions against it.

Independence of Catalonia is postponed

Kimmo Huosionmaa

When some local parliament will offer people to vote about independence of some area, they normally don't tell that if other independent states won't confess that independence, the new state is not juridically even exist. Nobody changes currency of that area and makes diplomatic relationship with it. So when some area wants to be independent it should ask support from other independent states before leaders of this new nation will call people to vote about independence.


This is a problem about this kind of actions. New nations called Catalonia are not very big. That's why their economical situation would be unstable before they invent new way to earn money. Major problem of those politics who wants independence is that they have populistic programs.


They promise people money when they vote for future of some areas. They use very simple arguments why everybody must vote independence of that area, and one is above all. That area must pay other areas social security because it is wealthier than other areas of that state. And when that area will become independent, the taxes are going down and life of people of this new state will become cheaper. Normally those great leaders of new nation doesn't explain that there is needed more than their own will to become independent state. Patriotism is of course good thing for people.


 But when new state become independent it must build new government for it own citizens. It must make diplomatic relationship to other nations and make new economy, and make millions of other decisions. As many nation have seen, independence is not any fiesta. When fireworks ends and people goes home after independence party, there is lots of work to do, before new state will become normal nation.

Before nation new leaders are called to give speech to United Nations they must have support from other nations. And what is major thing about independence, is if new state will face threat or nightmares like collapsing economy, it must now handle that kind of situation alone. It can't get help from it past mother country. It must take lends or some other way to survive in that situation. If independence does't get support from other nation will it stay dream.