Kimmo Huosionmaa
Probabilities and other things are the most interesting thing, what the mathematicians have ever created in their mind. Probability is the thing, what has caused grey hair for many military leaders and rulers around the world. What is the probability of the thing that meteorite will strike your house? This might be the very important thing for the insurance companies, that make the prices for their insurances. If the meteorite would be destroyed some house, must the insurance company make the bills for that, and can they sell insurances, what covers the destructions of the meteorite? And will anybody buy those insurances, is the very good question, if those new insurances will come to the marketing.
The calculation about what is the probability that meteorite, what hits the house, if it hits to the Earth is quite simple. The area of the house would division with the area of the Earth, and as we will see, the probability that some particular house will be destroyed by the impact of the meteorite is quite small. But when the insurance companies or police want to find out, is something actually the cause of the probability, they collect the statistics, and that sometimes uncovers some things are made for the purpose. In the things what will happen in the long-period sequence, is sometimes visible that this kind of thing happens simultaneously. Let's take one fictional case, what provides that the archives and statistics show that this kind of things happens on purpose.
This is the key element why the statistics are collected. They will uncover if something is done by the purpose. One thing is if the person who has been in some mental institute will get the letter from the steward's office, that this person has been noisy. What makes this letter very interesting, is that it comes when this person's family have been in the long holiday. Rest of this person's family had the way, that they would be a long period in the sunshine when they will celebrate their every ten years of the marriage.
And one day some person was realized, that those letters came all the time when this person's family have been at overseas. This kind of things shows, that somebody will make the wailings only when this person's family were on their holiday trip. When those reclamation letters were dropped from the mailbox only when the family of this person was far away, will the simultaneous action, what happens time and again, show the investigator, that there is something wrong in this fictional case.
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