The AI can help to predict "black swans", low-probability, high-risk events such as earthquakes, and pandemics.

The term black swan means extremely extraordinary. But possible cases have a great influence on the things that are happening. So the "black swan" is a low-probability but high-risk event. Sometimes those "black swans" are positive. And that means the terms "high-effect or high influence" can replace the term "high-risk". Two of the black swans are, of course, an alien invasion and large-scale nuclear accidents.

Nuclear accidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima are things that are done. But the things that went wrong should store in the database. And the AI can tell the crew that uses the nuclear reactor that "you are acting like in Chernobyl". In the case of Chernobyl, nobody mentioned to the staff that the reactor was poisoned with Xenon, and then a couple of more mistakes caused that the reactor exploded.

The mistake caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster. But the authorities made that mistake a long time before the tsunami. While the position of the Fukushima nuclear plant was chosen nobody predicted tsunamis. Those giant waves are quite often on the coast of Japan, but for some unknown reason, nobody thought that they could be dangerous for nuclear plants.

The tsunamis are not "black swans" in Japan. Another thing that caused the problems was that the power cannot deliver to Fukushima nuclear power plant from outside. And the tsunami caused that the auxiliary power of the nuclear plant couldn't start. So the power plant was was without electricity and that caused the melting of the nuclear reactors. The protective building around the reactor collapsed. And nobody couldn't use the emergency buttons inside the reactor hall because they were buried below the garbage.

The most well-known "black swan" event was the 9/11 attack in 2001. The terrorists flew the highjacked aircraft against World Trade Center. That thing caused "only" local disasters. The 4000 people died but the psychological influence affect the entire world. The thing is that the COVID-19 is a similar"black swan"-effect. The pandemics caused the lockdown situation and the great financial losses. About 3-10% of people needed hospital care but the influence is much larger. And there was no warning about that kind of threat. The pandemics were a well-known threat, but the COVID-19 surprised everybody.

The AI could use to search data that is collected from those cases to find "what should do other ways in future"? And then it can search for things that allowed the COVID-19 to break through the wall and cause pandemics.

But when we are thinking about things like earthquakes and pandemics we must ask: "how to predict them"?. If we can predict and prepare those things. That thing makes very big benefit for the planning of the future. if we can predict pandemics or tsunamis, we could make our environment safe.

When we are trying to predict that kind of thing. we might use AI for that kind of process. The AI can collect every possible data from similar cases from history. And that kind of thing can help to find similar things in nature or social environment. That caused the last catastrophe.

When people want to make a computer program that predicts the earthquake they should collect things like was there some special smell, did the animals behave someway differently? And then things like what kind of seismic activity happened before the "big one" the most destructive earthquake.

In the cases of tsunamis, the programmers can collect the things. Like what the water looked like before that thing happened? There are also things like seismic and meteorological data that can uncover the coming disasters. The thing is that collecting all possible data can help to predict the next disaster.

Things like meteorological events are happening. When the deep-sea earthquakes are shaking the sediments. That is releasing gas into the air. Also before the volcano is erupting, it sends a massive mass of gas to the upper atmosphere. And that thing is visible in the satellites.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster

https://thoughtandmachines.blogspot.com/

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